XTB has published analysis linking World Cup wins to stronger stock market performance in the winning countries. Average market gains reached 3.2% during tournaments and in the following months, the investment platform said.
That compares with the FTSE 100's average 1.4% rise across England's last five World Cup campaigns, according to XTB's research.
The analysis points to a pattern in which equity markets in countries that lift the trophy tend to outperform around the tournament period. The effect is often most visible in consumer-facing parts of the economy, including hospitality, retail and leisure, where spending can rise during a successful summer football campaign.
Examples in the research include Argentina, where the Merval Index rose 9% during the 2022 tournament and in the month after victory. Germany's DAX gained 11% in 2014, when the country won the World Cup, while Italy's market rose 5% after its 2006 win and climbed 16% over the year.
England's record was less clear-cut. The strongest market performance identified by XTB came in 2010, when the FTSE 100 rose 6% during the tournament and in the following month as markets recovered from the financial crisis.
The pattern did not hold in every campaign. England's run to the semi-finals in 2018 coincided with a 2.7% fall in the FTSE 100 as Brexit uncertainty weighed on markets, while the index gained 2.3% during and shortly after the 2022 World Cup despite inflation and higher interest rates.
Consumer effect
Any uplift linked to football success would most likely be felt in areas tied to discretionary spending, XTB said. Pubs, bars and restaurants were highlighted as potential beneficiaries if a home nation were to make a deep run in the tournament, as stronger footfall and spending are often associated with periods of heightened public enthusiasm.
Retailers and leisure operators could also see a short-term lift if consumer sentiment improves. Analysts have long tracked the effect of major sporting events on confidence, particularly when households respond to a feel-good atmosphere by spending more on food, drink, travel and entertainment.
The link between sporting success and financial markets remains difficult to isolate from wider economic forces. Share prices can move for many reasons at the same time, including inflation, interest rates, political developments and global risk appetite, all of which can easily outweigh any boost in sentiment from a football tournament.
That is reflected in the mixed UK data cited by XTB. While a successful campaign may coincide with stronger trading for parts of the consumer economy, broader stock market performance still depends on the wider backdrop facing listed companies and investors.
Market sentiment
Kathleen Brooks, Research Director at XTB, said: "Major sporting events like the World Cup can have a surprisingly positive effect on investor sentiment, particularly when national teams perform well. While football success does not change economic fundamentals overnight, it can boost confidence among consumers and investors, which can feed through into markets in the short term."
Brooks said the historical record suggested that winning countries often saw stronger market returns around the tournament window, but cautioned against drawing simple conclusions about lasting effects.
She added: "Historically, stock markets in World Cup-winning countries have tended to outperform during and immediately after the tournament. For the UK, an England or Scotland victory could provide a welcome lift for sectors tied to consumer spending, including hospitality, retail and leisure, at a time when the economy continues to face a challenging backdrop. However, any longer-term gains for UK equities would still depend on inflation, interest rates and the wider global economic outlook."